The battle lines are finally drawn. After weeks of confusion and infighting, the Grand Alliance has made its move, naming 36-year-old Tejashwi Yadav as its candidate for Bihar’s Chief Minister. It’s a gamble that could turn out to be either a masterstroke or a disaster.
The opposition’s plan is clear: pit its youngest face against Bihar’s oldest leader, energize the powerful Muslim-Yadav base that makes up nearly a third of the electorate, and present a fresh alternative to Nitish Kumar’s 20-year rule. But after Hemant Soren’s Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) walked out and allies fought bitterly over seat-sharing, the question remains: Is this announcement too late to make a difference?
With Nitish Kumar battling anti-incumbency and the NDA still undecided on its leadership, this could be Tejashwi’s moment. But will Bihar embrace his promise of change or stick with the familiar?
Why It Could Work
The M-Y Base Reawakens. By projecting a Yadav leader, the alliance is counting on its most loyal supporters, the 14% Yadav and 18% Muslim voters, to rally behind Tejashwi. It’s a move aimed at reuniting a base that had started drifting toward Prashant Kishor and Asaduddin Owaisi.
NDA’s Leadership Vacuum. While Nitish Kumar’s two-decade rule shows fatigue, the ruling coalition hasn’t decided who will lead it next. The Grand Alliance hopes this clarity, a young, energetic Tejashwi versus an aging Nitish, will attract voters frustrated with endless political flip-flops and uncertainty.
The Youth Factor. The age contrast couldn’t be sharper, 36 versus 73. With over 16 million young voters between 20 and 29, and more than a million first-timers, Tejashwi’s focus on jobs and development could spark real momentum among Bihar’s youth.
Why It Could Backfire
Caste Equation Trouble. Putting a Yadav leader front and center could upset other backward communities, Kurmis, Koeris, and non-Yadav OBCs, whose support is crucial. The RJD’s ticket distribution hasn’t helped: of 77 OBC candidates, 53 are Yadavs. The NDA has already seized on this, painting itself as the true representative of all backward castes.
The Ghost of Jungle Raj. The BJP is reviving memories of the lawlessness of the 1990s under Lalu Prasad Yadav. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has asked his party workers to remind young voters of those “dark days,” ensuring that Tejashwi can’t escape the shadow of his father’s rule.
Weeks of internal fighting gave the NDA a head start. The late decision to project Tejashwi may have cost the alliance valuable time and energy. His earlier momentum from the Bihar Adhikar Yatra seems to have faded, and even the planned rallies with Rahul Gandhi feel more like a rescue act than a confident campaign.
