According to the SBI report, India’s trade surplus with the US may cross $90 billion annually due to sharp growth in exports after tariff cuts and more imports in the US markets. The report is pointing to an interesting statistic. The top 15 products sent from India to America have the potential for additional exports of $ 97 billion annually. If other products are added, this figure will easily cross $100 billion.

What is undeniable is that India’s trade surplus with the US in 2024-25 was $40.9 billion, which is now expected to more than double. This can have a positive impact of about 1.1 percent on Indian GDP. The trade surplus in the first nine months of 2025-26 has been $26 billion.

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• There is potential for additional export of $97 billion in the top 15 products sent to America.




• Trade surplus with America was $40.9 billion in 2024-25

Imports from America may increase by 55 billion dollars

As part of the trade deal announcement, India has agreed to reduce or eliminate tariffs on all US industrial goods and agricultural and food products. At the same time, except for some commodities, America’s share in India’s imports is already between 20-40 percent. It is expected to increase further if the tariff is reduced. This could lead to an increase of $55 billion in imports from America.

India can save more than three billion dollars

India has agreed to buy products worth $500 billion from America in the next five years. America is already dominant in some areas. For example… in the case of almonds, America’s share in India’s total imports is 90 percent. With reduced tariff, India can save $100-150 million in its foreign exchange reserves just on almond imports. Apart from this, India can save three billion dollars in foreign exchange reserves due to zero US tariffs on other products or reduction in import duties. This savings can be even higher with import substitution.

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